When Iowa Snatched New Hampshire
Happy Iowa Caucus Day from Gary Hart and George McGovern
To put it bluntly, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz all won the Iowa caucus. Keep that in mind as the day unfolds. But Iowa does go first, so it’s not nothing. But how did Iowa snatch national attention from New Hampshire?
George McGovern that’s how.
That changed after the national Democratic Party revamped its nominating process in the wake of its chaotic 1968 convention. As a consequence of those changes, the Iowa party moved its precinct caucuses – which typically had been held in late March or early April – to Jan. 24, somewhat inadvertently making them the first step on the long road to the national convention. In 1972, George McGovern campaigned in Iowa to raise his profile ahead of the New Hampshire primary; even though McGovern came in third in Iowa, he ultimately won the nomination. In 1976, the Republican and Democratic parties agreed to hold their caucuses on the same day, and both attracted substantial attention from candidates and the media. Since then, the state has zealously defended its first-in-the-nation status.
Drew DeSilver, Pew Research
First, the McGovern Commission created new rules for amassing delegates that was intended to give more voice to women, minorities and the LGBTQIA+ community. But like the man himself, the McGovern changes were nuanced. As 1972 rolled around, campaigns hadn’t yet realized that the one who understands the new math wins the game. Senator Ed Muskie from Maine was believed to be a lock in New Hampshire. The crowded field of Democratic contenders needed to shake that up. The needed a surprise headline. They needed Iowa and McGovern’s campaign manager, Gary Hart, intended to take Iowa very seriously.
Iowa was foggy and dreary on January 24, 1972, but at 30 degrees, it was downright balmy compared to January 15, 2024. By the time the wind started drifting the snow, 20,000 Iowans had gathered to debate the issues of the day.
In the end, thirty-six percent (36%) remained uncommitted. Muskie came in a close second with just over thirty-five percent (35.5%). For George, though, a surprise showing at twenty-three percent (23%) was a victory. "It was the first time that a headline from an election appeared with me in the sub-head saying, George McGovern came in a strong second."
In 2016, the last time there was a real nominee challenge for Republicans, almost 187,000 Iowans participated in the caucus. That’s less than one-third of all registered Republicans. Like Ron DeSantis, Cruz visited all ninety-nine counties in Iowa allowing him to convince “voters that he would deliver on promises to end Obamacare and use extensive aerial bombing campaigns to stop Islamic State militants in the Middle East.”
That’s The Magic of Iowa
Momentum is the magic of Iowa if a candidate can keep it.
As predicted, Senator Ed Muskie did win the March 7, 1972, New Hampshire primary with forty-six percent (46%) of the vote. However, McGovern was able to harness his Iowas momentum to a strong second showing. By April, Muskie’s campaign was in a death spiral due to a lack of momentum and perceived petulance in the face of the “Canuck Letter.”
Nikki Haley wasn’t entirely wrong when she, in jest, said that Iowa votes, then New Hampshire corrects Iowa.
Reagan trounced George H.W. Bush. Bush then trounced Pat Buchanan. McCain beat George W. Bush. McCain and Romney beat Huckabee and Giuliani by a lot. Then, in 2012, Romney toppled Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich. To say the least, the 2016 Trump New Hampshire showing was a historically abnormal event. For the most part, New Hampshire primary voters prefer more moderate candidates over the more rabid candidates Iowans favor.