Politics, Polls and Performance
surging, slipping, and steady as she goes
In September of 1971, with nearly the same amount of time on the clock as we have between today and Election Day 2024, the New York Times headline read “POLL SHOWS NIXON TOPS 3 DEMOCRATS”
The Gallup Poll was conducted on the heels of Nixon’s announced trip to China “in Search of world peace” and his Administration’s pledge to bring about “new economic policies to control inflation and halt joblessness.”
“The polls confirmed what Democratic politicians had already declared—that Mr. Nixon's diplomatic and economic moves had improved his standing among voters.”
Pollsters asked 1,054 registered voters: “To get some idea of the national political situation at this early stage, suppose the Presidential election were being held today. If Richard Nixon were the Republican candidate and (name of Democrat being tested) were the Democratic candidate and George Wallace ran again as a third‐party candidate, which would you like to see win?”
The names pitted Senator Ed Muskie, Senator Teddy Kennedy, and Senator Hubert Humphrey against not just President Nixon but also against segregationist Governor George Wallace. No other Democratic candidate names, such as Congresswoman Shirley Chisholm or Senator George McGovern, were floated in the poll.
It can be dangerous to be number two. Senator Muskie who had been polling at 42 percent, dropped to 36 percent. Apparently, that was still too close for Nixon’s comfort. Five months later, Ed Muskie would be finished as a Presidential contender. Done in by members of the (take your pick) Plumbers, CREEP, or Ratf*cker team. Take a deeper look in my “We Elect Jackasses Every Chance We Get” post. When facing Muskie and Nixon, Wallace drew 11 percent with 11 percent undecided.
Senator Kennedy, whose July 1969 choices led to the death of Mary Jo Kopenche and whose delayed response to McGovern’s Vice Presidential invitation was a contributing factor to what would become known as the “Eagleton Affair,” did not even run on the 1972 ticket. Still, he polled in a virtual tie with Nixon with ten percent favoring Wallace and seven percent undecided.
Take a deeper look into McGovern’s important relationship with all three Kennedy brothers here and here.
Humphrey, favored by the Union bosses of the era, was coming in at 37 percent with 12 percent picking Wallace and 7 percent undecided.
In other words, with fourteen months until Election Day 1972, somewhere between 17 and 22 percent of American voters were entertaining the notion of a President Wallace.
Governor George Wallace, Montgomery Advertiser
Who Can Say, For Sure?
www.fivethirtyeight.com
Thirteen months out? Probably no one. Anything can happen and everyone needs to be ready for their moment in the spotlight. Moments that will surely come next week during the November 8, 2023 GOP debate. What we do know, as of this weekend’s poll, Iowans are turning their attention to former Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.
Sidenote: If you don’t trust polls, PEW Research, you aren’t wrong.
Nikki will have her moment and if her previous debate performances tell us anything, it is that she will be ready. And, as long as former President Donald Trump keeps out-corrupting the Nixon Administration and Governor Ron DeSantis keeps entertaining the Wallace fringe with Muskie-level indignation, Nikki Haley could find herself the first female Republican nominee for President.
Wouldn’t that be something?